The inflation picture is starting to look less benign than markets expected a few months ago.

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, which has historically led US CPI by roughly 12 months, has turned sharply higher again while headline inflation is already showing signs of reacceleration. If that relationship holds, the bigger story may not be this month's CPI print but the growing risk that inflation remains sticky well into 2027, limiting how aggressively the Fed can ease policy.
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