Polymarket is pulling huge traffic, but the PnL distribution looks like a typical trading venue.

Over 100K wallets are down at least $1K, roughly double the number that made that much, and total losses across the long tail sit around $131M.

The middle is crowded around small gains and losses, while meaningful profits cluster in a much smaller group. That points to a market where edge compounds quickly and most participants are effectively paying for liquidity and information.

Prediction markets are efficient at pricing outcomes, but that efficiency transfers value to the few who consistently beat the odds.
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