Fed rate decision this week: markets price ≈36% odds of surprise 25bps hike – Link

The Fed meets July 28–29, with markets pricing about a 36% chance of a 25 bps hike. Citadel Securities' macro strategist expects a surprise hike to reinforce Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's focus on price stability, while the base case is unchanged rates.

Matters because: the decision could drive risk asset positioning and crypto volatility this week.
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