🇯🇵 BoJ to 1% but crypto didn’t care this time. Here’s why:

The Bank of Japan hiked 25bp to 1.0% today, the highest since September 1995.

After this, Nikkei punched through 70,000 for the first time ever, USD/JPY held above 160, and BTC barely flinched at ~$66k.

In August 2024, a same-sized surprise hike dragged BTC from $65k to $50k in a week.

Four reasons the playbook broke:

1. The hike was already priced in. Polymarket sat at 98–99% pre-meeting.

2. Carry is structurally smaller. The fast hedge-fund leg blew up in 2024, with net JPY shorts collapsing from ~180k to flat in 5 weeks. Today’s 145k shorts are extreme but hedged carry has been negative since mid-2022.

3. BTC is already low. 50% off October highs, $4.4B of ETF outflows over 13 sessions cleared the leverage.

4. Real rates remain deeply negative. The carry isn’t dead, it’s just no longer the marginal driver of BTC.
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